Liu et al. Science. 347,(2015) Torres, J. et al. Science. 357, 970–971 (2017). Liu et al. Ecology & Society. 18 (2013).
A case study on salmon
“human actions in one place may create unintended consequences elsewhere”
Climate teleconnections: distant interactions between climate systems
Urban-land teleconnections: land changes linked to underlying urbanisation dynamics
Economic globalization: trade and distant interactions between productive systems
Sugihara et al. Detecting Causality in Complex Ecosystems. Science (2012)
Sugihara et al. Detecting Causality in Complex Ecosystems. Science (2012)
If x causes y, then the behaviour of the causal variable (x) leaves a signature on the affected variable (y)
Criterion for CCM to be a rigorous test of causality:
Sugihara et al. Detecting Causality in Complex Ecosystems. Science (2012)
If x causes y, then the behaviour of the causal variable (x) leaves a signature on the affected variable (y)
Criterion for CCM to be a rigorous test of causality:
Sugihara et al. Detecting Causality in Complex Ecosystems. Science (2012)
Each link correspond to the relationship A -> B <- C
, where the forecasting skill allow us to predict C dynamics given the time series of A with a \(\rho\) > 0.1 (t-test, p < 0.05)
Each link correspond to the relationship A -> B <- C
, where the forecasting skill allow us to predict C dynamics given the time series of A with a \(\rho\) > correlation coefficient (t-test, p < 0.05)
41 out of 239 trading countries are causally related on the salmon trade network (~45%)
Prediction skill \(\rho\) is weakly correlated to network structure but not necessarily with trade volume
Questions?
email: juan.rocha@su.se
twitter: @juanrocha
slides: juanrocha.se/presentations/trade_networks
preprint: coming soon!
Stockholm Resilience Centre
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