Regime Shifts Interactions

Juan C. Rocha

Forest to savanna

Regime shifts are large, abrupt and persistence critical transitions in the function and structure of (eco)systems

Coral transitions

Regime shifts are large, abrupt and persistence critical transitions in the function and structure of (eco)systems

Fisheries collapse

Regime shifts are large, abrupt and persistence critical transitions in the function and structure of (eco)systems

Tipping points can interact

Interactions

Amazon tipping points: 3-4\(^\circ C\), 1500mm rain, 40% deforestation, fire frequency?

Which will be hit first? How approaching one modifies another?

Can regime shifts be interconnected?

How crossing a tipping point could increase the likelihood of other ecosystems tipping over

How do regime shifts interact?

Whether the occurrence of one will increase the likelihood of another, or simply correlate at distant places

Conceptual and theoretical work

Lenton et al 2019 Nature

  • Tipping can hop between systems: \(X \rightarrow Y \rightarrow Z\)
    Brummit 2015
  • Coupled tipping systems do not leave early warning signals Dekker 2018
  • Some network motifs (feedforward loops) can destabilize tipping cascades Krönke 2020, Wunderling 2020

Modelling and climate centered work. Are there other mechanisms?

Regime Shifts Database

  • To provide a high quality synthesis of different types of regime shifts in SES
  • To facilitate comparison
  • Focus: regime shifts that have large impacts on ecosystem services i.e. matter to people
  • Target audience: Scientist, assessment processes, educators, practitioners, policy-makers

    Biggs, et al. 2018. Ecology & Society

www.regimeshifts.org

Source: Regime Shifts Database

Method

Rocha, J, et al . Cascading regime shifts within and across scales. Science 362, 1379–1383 (2018)

A worked example

Cascading effects

~45% of the regime shift couplings analyzed present structural dependencies in the form of one-way interactions for the domino effect or two-way interactions for hidden feedbacks

Rocha, J. et al 2018. Science

Driver sharing

Aquatic regime shifts tend to have and share more drivers. The most co-occurring drivers are related to food production, climate change & urbanisation. 36% of pair-wise combinations are solely coupled by sharing drivers

Rocha et al. 2015. PlosOne

Domino effects

Evidence of cross-scale interactions for domino effects was only found in space but not in time. The maximum number of pathways found was 4, and the variables that produce most domino effects relate to climate, nutrients and water transport

Hidden feedbacks

Most hidden feedbacks occur in terrestrial and earth systems. Key variables that belong to many of these hidden feedbacks are related to climate, fires, erosion, agriculture and urbanisation

Trivia

What is your favorite take home message from their work?

Breaking boundaries

Scenes from the Heart, 2018
No one is too small to make a difference, 2019



05:00

Why does it matter? Earth Stewardship



Osterblom et al 2015

Who has the agency to make a difference?

  • “Zoonotic EID risk is elevated in forested tropical regions experiencing land-use changes and where wildlife biodiversity is high” Allen et al 2017

  • Companies who extract natural resources

  • Shareholders who invested in them

  • Networks of shareholders with common investments

Galaz et al 2023 Financial influence on global risk zoonotic emerging and re-emerging disease Lancet Planetary Health

Why does it matter? Earth Stewardship

  • How tipping points are interconnected can amplify or dampen cascading effects: network structure matters
  • It can empower countries, cities or businesses to do their part: emphasize agency
  • It can re-draw the geopolitical map of the world: with whom do you need to cooperate to avoid synchronous crises?

SeaBOS
Seeds of Good Anthropocenes

Regime shifts can be interconnected



  • Climate is a central mechanism, but not the only one. Other mechanisms can trigger tipping cascades earlier than climate
  • Multiple mechanisms means multiple opportunities for intervention
  • Empirical evidence is missing: which connections are more relevant? what interventions has potential to slow down tipping cascades?

Rocha et al 2018 Science

Summary

  • Regime shifts are large, abrupt and persistent changes
  • They occur when tipping points are crossed
  • Tipping points can interact
  • Regime shifts can be interconnected
  • Identifying where, when and by whom can help us manage their risk: cities, businesses, everyone! have an important role to play in taking care of 🌎